“The hope is that the Italian consumer , in such a hectic period for the market, can acquire a greater awareness of the real value of extra virgin olive oil, leading him to recognize extra virgin olive oil as a main food (with a capital A, considering its health and organoleptic properties) of the Mediterranean Diet and not a simple condiment or ingredient to be used in the kitchen”.
This is the concept summed up by Denis Pantini , head of Agri-food at Nomisma , who spoke today during the conference dedicated to “The olive oil market in Italy and Europe: reality and prospects”. This is one of the many panels organised as part of SOL2EXPO , the international trade fair dedicated entirely to the olive and oil supply chain currently underway at Veronafiere .
According to the analysis presented by the SOL2EXPO-Nomisma Observatory , in large-scale retail trade the average growth in prices resulting from the scarcity of supply at a national and global level has already reduced the existing differential between EU Extra Virgin Olive Oil (which continues to represent the best-selling type, with a volume share of 62%) and “100% Italian” from 47% in 2022 to 20% in 2024. This price convergence has made the product obtained from Italian olives more “attractive” for the consumer, whose average shelf price is rightly higher. It is therefore necessary to transform the push of inflation generated by the production crisis of Italian oil into an opportunity for a new upward positioning on the market.
On the Modern Distribution front (based on NielsenIQ), the main sales channel for olive oil within the national borders, the last three years have been marked by the combined effects of inflation and an extraordinarily light production, which have determined a reduction in sales of extra virgin olive oil in volume (between 2022 and 2024) of 10% compared to an increase of 64% in value. Therefore, ultimately there is less extra virgin olive oil on the market but at significantly higher prices.
As for the foreign market, today the export of Extra Virgin from Italy reaches a total of 160 countries, but – the SOL2EXPO-Nomisma Observatory reports – 65% of the value of sales abroad is made in the 5 top markets, with the United States in the lead with a share of 32% followed – at a distance – by Germany (15.5%), France (7.9%), Canada (4.7%) and Japan (5.3%).
Between January and November 2024, olive oil made in Italy recorded above-average performances in Germany (+58% growth in value of Italian olive oil against an increase in overall oil imports of 42%), South Korea (+141% vs +86%), Australia (192% vs 106%) and Mexico (99% vs 82%). Ultimately, Italian olive oil grows in percentage terms more than the total of all countries.
Extra virgin olive oil , in particular, has also recorded interesting growth in terms of volumes in South Korea and Germany , where quantities have increased by 82% and 19.4% respectively on the 2023 figures, compared to an increase in value of 152.6% towards Seoul and 68% towards Berlin.
Over 20 years, global consumption of olive oil has increased little by little (from 2.7 to 3 million tons) with more significant growth rates in non-EU countries, which have seen their weight increase from 28% to 57%. Consumption has increased in markets that are not “traditionally” producers while it has decreased in Italy, Spain and Greece. Among the top consumer markets, demand for olive oil has grown in the United States (+35% between 2014 and 2024 ), Brazil (+42%) and France (+6%), and if Europe and North America remain the main import areas, very interesting signs of growth can be seen in South America and Asia, with increases in imports between 2013 and 2023 in Chile and Peru (+15%), Colombia (+13%), South Korea (+12%) and Indonesia (+11%).
According to the Nomisma survey, which involved a representative sample of one thousand consumers, Italians consider extra virgin olive oil superior to other types of oils in terms of quality (89%), value for money (85%), taste (85%) and health benefits (79%).
Source: Ispropress Press Office for SOL2EXPO; credits Ennevifoto for cover image