After a slight decline in exports (in value) in 2023 and a domestic market under the ‘inflation effect’, which led to a reduction in wine sales in large-scale retail trade of almost 3%, 2024, despite geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns, should close – according to Nomisma Wine Monitor estimates – with a positive sign in exports of over 4%, thus exceeding, albeit slightly, the fateful threshold of 8 billion euros. The case of sales on the domestic market in the modern channel is different, where in the first 9 months of this year, there is still a drop in volume of -1.5% that will be difficult to recover by New Year’s Eve.
According to the latest Nomisma Wine Monitor Report on wine imports in the main 12 world markets (which represent over 60% of the value of global wine purchases), at the end of the third quarter of 2024 an aggregate drop in purchases in value from abroad of -2.6% was confirmed. Among the top markets analyzed, only China and Brazil emerged with significantly positive increases in both value and volume. In particular, China’s result (+27%) was mainly attributable to the return of Australian wines to the market, made possible by the elimination of the ‘super duties’ imposed by the Beijing government from 2021. As for purchases from Italy, positive trends in value were found, in the case of bottled still wines, in the United States and Canada, while more significant growth was seen for Italian sparkling wines in Australia, France, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
In 2024, Italian wine exports are driven by sparkling wines and, in particular, by Prosecco (now 2 out of 10 bottles of Italian wine exported concern this denomination). With regard to the many unknowns weighing on international markets, the not-so-veiled threat of additional duties feared by the newly elected President Trump starting next year, but also the increase in excise duties on wines and alcoholic beverages already applied in Russia and the one planned in the United Kingdom starting from 1 February 2025. The first signs of a greater diversification of foreign markets by Italian wine can be deduced from the dichotomy in the performance of our exports recorded during the current year: while in several ‘consolidated’ markets negative variations are recorded (Germany first and foremost, but also Switzerland, France, Norway), in other countries, whose individual weight on our overall exports does not exceed 1%, double-digit percentage growth is emerging. This is the case, for example, of Austria, Ireland, Brazil, Romania, Croatia, Thailand and many others that, in this 2024 full of unknowns, seem to support the growth of our sales abroad. Remaining in our country, wine sales in the retail channel – analyzed in the Wine Monitor Report – Niq on the off-trade channel – show a timid recovery in the third quarter of 2024, which however was not able to bring the cumulative of the first nine months into positive territory, as regards the volumes of wine sold. A reduction that is common to all distribution formats, but not to the different categories.
While still and sparkling wines show the greatest declines in quantities sold, which are more severe in e-commerce, the performance of sparkling wines continues to stand out positively, following a trend that began in recent months, boasting growth in volume across all sales channels, although the impact of the high cost of living on the pockets of Italians is still evident, who, when choosing bubbles, are favoring generic, cheaper sparkling wines to the detriment of PDO ones. Source: Wine Monitor Nomisma